Global Air Cargo Rates Hold 35% Above 2025 Levels — Forwarders Invest in Own-Controlled Capacity

Rates: $3.29/kg and Holding

Global air cargo rates averaged $3.29 per kilogram at the end of May 2026 — 35% above the same period in 2025 — according to market data compiled by industry analysts. The Middle East and South Asia corridor saw the sharpest increase at 56%, driven by ongoing conflict-related disruptions to shipping routes in the region. Overall air cargo demand grew approximately 4% year-on-year, while global capacity contracted 0.4% due to rising fuel costs and operational constraints.

Forwarders Respond: Kühne+Nagel Builds Own Network

In a move that signals the strategic importance of air freight control, Kühne+Nagel — the world's largest freight forwarder — has expanded its own-controlled air freight network with a long-term leased Boeing 747-8F. Operated by Atlas Air, the aircraft connects Chicago, Frankfurt, and Atlanta with a payload capacity of 140 tons per flight, specifically targeting pharmaceutical and high-tech industry cargo.

The K+N move reflects a broader industry trend: major forwarders are investing in dedicated air capacity rather than relying entirely on commercial airline belly space and third-party charters. For shippers, this means more guaranteed capacity options — but also a market where forwarder-owned capacity commands premium pricing.

What Shippers Should Watch

• Rate trajectory. With fuel costs elevated and capacity constrained, air freight rates are unlikely to decline significantly in H2 2026. Budget for rates 25–35% above 2025 benchmarks.
• Forwarder capacity. Working with a forwarder that has strong carrier relationships — whether through own-controlled capacity or long-term block space agreements — is becoming a competitive advantage for shippers.
• Mode flexibility. The widening cost gap between air and rail makes multimodal strategies more attractive. For appropriate cargo, China-Europe rail at 15–18 days can deliver 40–60% cost savings versus air. See rail corridor analysis →

Related: Air & Multimodal Services from China →  |  China: 80 New Air Cargo Routes →

Smart Shipper Strategies for Elevated Rates

Sophisticated shippers are adopting a three-pronged response to sustained elevated rates. Mode optimization: shifting non-urgent cargo to sea-air combinations (ocean to a Middle East hub, air to Europe) delivering 12-15 day transit at 40-50% of pure air freight cost. Carrier diversification: building relationships with 3-4 carriers rather than relying on a single partner, maintaining competitive tension and reducing single-carrier vulnerability. Forward contracting: locking in capacity and rate ranges 6-12 months ahead for predictable volumes, insulating against spot market volatility. These strategies require a forwarder with genuine multi-carrier relationships — not a booking agent tied to a single preferred carrier.